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FULTON FINANCIAL CORP (FULT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered solid operating performance: Operating EPS $0.48 (vs $0.50 in Q3), GAAP EPS $0.36 (vs $0.33), with operating efficiency ratio improving to 58.4% (from 59.6%) and PPNR/Avg Assets rising to 1.63% (from 1.61%) .
- Net interest margin compressed 8 bps q/q to 3.41% as 2024 rate cuts flowed through; total cost of deposits fell ~10 bps to 2.14%, cushioning NII pressure; noninterest income rose q/q to $65.9M on smaller bargain-purchase gain adjustment .
- Credit remained manageable but normalized: NCOs/avg loans up to 0.22% (from 0.18%), NPAs/assets to 0.69% (from 0.64%), and ACL/loans up to 1.58% (from 1.56%) .
- 2025 operating guidance implies stable earnings power: NII $995M–$1.02B (non-FTE), operating opex $755M–$775M, provision $60M–$80M, noninterest income $265M–$280M, ETR ~18%; FultonFirst and Republic saves expected to keep expenses flat y/y on an operating basis .
- Capital actions and catalysts: Dividend increased to $0.18 in Dec. 2024 and a new 2025 repurchase authorization up to $125M; execution of FultonFirst cost saves and CD repricing tailwinds are key stock catalysts into 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Operating profitability and efficiency improved despite NIM pressure: operating efficiency ratio 58.4% (from 59.6%); PPNR/Avg Assets 1.63% (from 1.61%) .
- Deposit costs declined 10 bps to 2.14%; average NIB deposits increased $62.2M q/q, supporting funding mix resilience .
- Integration execution: Republic systems conversion completed; cost saves “in line” and contributing; FultonFirst run-rate saves ~<$5M> in Q4 with ~$25M planned in 2025 and >$50M annualized by 2026; management: “we are excited to see the full benefits impact our results in 2025” .
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What Went Wrong
- NIM contracted 8 bps q/q to 3.41% on rapid Fed easing; loan yields fell 23 bps to 5.97% even as deposit costs fell, pressuring NII (down $4.4M q/q) .
- Credit normalization: NCOs/avg loans up to 0.22% (from 0.18%); NPAs/assets up to 0.69% (from 0.64%); NPLs/loans to 0.92% (from 0.84%) .
- Loan balances declined $131M q/q as planned runoff (indirect auto) and acquired-loan repositioning offset originations; consumer fees modestly softer q/q .
Financial Results
Balance Sheet and Credit
Selected KPIs
Noninterest Income Breakdown (Consolidated)
Note on estimates: S&P Global consensus estimates were temporarily unavailable at request time; therefore, no estimate comparisons are presented (S&P Global data unavailable).
Guidance Changes
Assumptions: Management incorporates two 25 bp Fed cuts (Mar, Jun 2025) in guidance .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2024 was a record year for Fulton. Operating diluted earnings per share of $1.85 represents an 8% increase over the prior year.” – Curtis J. Myers, Chairman & CEO .
- “During the quarter, we completed the systems conversion [of Republic]… we are now realizing cost savings in line with our initial assumptions… excited to see the full benefits impact our results in 2025.” – Curtis Myers .
- “Net interest income… decreased… while net interest margin declined by 8 bps to 3.41%… primarily driven by the effects of 100 bps of easing by the Fed… average cost of total deposits decreased 10 bps to 2.14%.” – Richard Kraemer, CFO .
- “For 2025, our operating guidance… NII $995M-$1.02B; provision $60M-$80M; noninterest income $265M-$280M; operating noninterest expense $755M-$775M; tax rate ~18%.” – Richard Kraemer .
Q&A Highlights
- Margin/NII cadence: No explicit NIM guide; NII expected slightly lower in Q1’25 (day count/growth), then trend higher through 2025 as repricing tailwinds accrue .
- Deposit betas and CD repricing: Near-term NMD cycle betas mid-20s; ~$4.5B CDs maturing in 2025 at ~4.36% average cost, expected to reprice 50–80 bps lower if market stable .
- Accretion income: Purchase accounting accretion expected $13.5–$14.0M per quarter in 2025, drifting slightly lower over time .
- Loan growth: Low-to-mid single-digit targeted across categories; headwinds from indirect auto runoff (~$40M/quarter) and acquired-loan repositioning should moderate over 2025 .
- Capital deployment: Buybacks remain third priority; 2025 authorization provides flexibility; M&A (community banks $1–$5B) remains strategic but disciplined .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at request time due to temporary access limits; as a result, we do not present beat/miss analysis versus consensus (S&P Global data unavailable).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Operating earnings quality improved: efficiency ratio fell to 58.4% and PPNR/Assets improved, signaling resilient core profitability into 2025 despite NIM headwinds .
- Funding tailwinds emerging: total deposit costs fell to 2.14% with more CD repricing ahead; this should offset some asset yield pressure and support NII trajectory .
- Expense discipline is the 2025 story: Operating opex guided flat y/y on $755M–$775M with visible FultonFirst and Republic saves, a key driver of operating leverage .
- Credit normalization but contained: higher NPAs/NCOs, yet ACL/loans up to 1.58% and office exposure low (3% of loans) with conservative LTV/DSCR; watch continued trends .
- Capital return optionality: Dividend raised to $0.18 and new $125M repurchase authorization for 2025; deployment pace will reflect growth needs and market conditions .
- 2025 outlook: Management embeds two rate cuts; expects NII to build after Q1; stable deposit mix and hedging position should dampen rate sensitivity .
- Execution catalyst: Full run-rate realization of FultonFirst and Republic cost saves plus AI-enabled CX efficiency (NICE CXone) offer incremental earnings support beyond rate dynamics .
Management’s narrative: 2024 was a “record” operating year, and 2025 is framed around expense control, stable-to-improving NII cadence, and continued prudent credit management—clear, actionable catalysts for positioning ahead of cost saves and repricing benefits .